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Dutch disease in Russia
Havelka, Robert ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
Dutch disease in Russia Robert Havelka Abstract Dutch Disease offers formal explanation to the so-called "Resource curse". Detection of Dutch Disease is divided into individual symptoms. We study the case of Russia, i.e. country which possesses significant reserves of natural resources. Long-term relationship between oil price and Russian real exchange rate was not established (1st symptom), but we find evidence of growth and fall of overall wage level in Russia as predicted by Dutch Disease (2nd symptom). We have been able to find statistically significant long-term relationship between Russian GDP, oil price and crude oil export volumes (3rd symptom). Oil price is found to have positive impact on the output of manufacturing sector, which implies Russian economy is to even larger extent vulnerable to oil price shocks. Last link is in direct contradiction with predictions of our model, but it is likely the result of Russian manufacturing sector not being entirely "non-oil", or that some manufacturing sub-sectors are not producing tradable goods. JEL Classication F30, P28, Q30 Keywords Dutch disease, Russia, exchange rate Author's e-mail robberthz.cz@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@gmail.com
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Opportunities and challenges of the Ghanaian economy with the commercial production of Oil
Nchor, Dennis
The study sought to answer three research questions regarding the impact of the new oil sector on the economy of Ghana. The areas covered by these questions include: oil price developments and their impact on economic activities in Ghana, the overall productive impact of the oil sector on economic multipliers and linkages of other sectors of the economy as well as the impact of the sector on traditional agriculture, manufacturing and underground economic activities in Ghana. For the first research question on the impact of shocks to crude oil prices on economic activities, the study employed a Vector Error Correction model for the analysis. The modelled variables were GDP and crude oil prices. GDP was used as the measure of economic activities. Both variables were transformed into logarithmic form. The results show that Ghana as an oil exporting country and a net oil importer is affected by fluctuations in oil prices. It suggests that a one standard error shock to crude oil prices has a transitory and negative effect on GDP in Ghana after one year.
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Economic change in Russia: Oil dependency
Krupa, Mikuláš ; Kučerová, Irah (advisor) ; Parízek, Michal (referee)
This thesis concentrates on the case of Russian economy and assessment of its dependence on oil. Russia is often cited as an example of country suffering from resource curse as its natural wealth forms significant share of country's exports and revenues. Thesis will first concentrate on factors determining current state of Russian economy. Presence of the symptoms of Dutch disease in the Russian economy will be studied using the Vector error correction model (VECM) applied on the real effective exchange rate of country (REER). Thesis will also contain an assessment of Russian institutional environment to check for other symptoms of resource curse theory. Analysis of latest federal budget will be used to evaluate the sustainability of Russian federal finances. The thesis is concluded by discussion of results and possible paths of future development of Russian economy.
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The Structural Change in the Economy of the United Mexican States
Matzek, Jan ; Sejkora, Jiří (advisor) ; Hasík, Gabriel (referee)
The aim of this paper is to identify and asses the structural change in the economy of the United Mexican States in the period from 1940 until the early 2000s. The data analysis is focused on identifying the trends in the context of Lewis' dual economy model, Kaldor's law, Dutch disease and the natural resources course. Using linear regression, we prove Kaldors' hypothesis on the relation between the growth of the manufacturing sector and the economy as such in the context of Mexico. Furthermore, trends consistent with Lewis' dual economy model are identified. The syndromes of Dutch disease in Mexico and its negative effects on non-mining sectors are described and analyzed.
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Occurrence of the Dutch Disease in the Azerbaijani economy
Valiyev, Asim ; Sejkora, Jiří (advisor) ; Sankot, Ondřej (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on the presence of Dutch Disease in the Azerbaijani economy. The substance of the thesis is the determination of, whether the Azerbaijani economy is showing the signs of the Dutch Disease and if necessary, to outline measures to mitigate the negative consequences of this disease. This thesis focuses on the symptoms of Dutch Disease, which include real exchange rate appreciation, slower manufacturing growth, faster service sector growth and higher overall wages. The largest part is dedicated to the evaluation whether above mentioned symptoms have direct context with extreme dependence of Azerbaijani economy on oil exports.
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Is Russia sick with Dutch Disease?
Abdullaeva, Nadiia ; Máslo, Lukáš (advisor) ; Prokop, Jaromír (referee)
The aim of this work is to prove a hypothesis whether Russia is sick with Dutch disease or not. In the theoretical part, the author expounds the model of Dutch disease by Corden, Neary (1982) and places the phenomenon into a historical perspective. Further on, the author identifies four main symptoms of the Dutch disease, i. e. an increasing dependence of a country on the export of natural resources, appreciation of the real exchange rate, a decline of the manufacturing sector and a growth of the service sector and, finally, an overall wage growth. In the empirical part, the author tests the presence of the particular symptoms of the Dutch disease in the Russian economy on the data set for the years 1998-2015, drawing upon the research of Oomes, Kalcheva (2007) and extending it by adding the symptom of increasing dependence of a country on the export of natural resources (the 1st symptom) and by prolonging the time series until 2015. The author presents her own multiple regression model with the dependent variable of real effective exchange rate and independent variables interest rate, oil prices and government expenditures, proving a positive correlation of 83% between the real effective exchange rate and oil price. Next, the author proves that the service sector and the natural resource sector increased their respective shares of the GDP in the economy by 6 and 5 percentage points between 2000-2015, while the manufacturing sector decreased almost by the 9 percentage points. By this, the author supports the assumption about the ongoing indirect deindustrialization process and, in effect, supports her assumption about the presence of the third symptom.
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Freeing The Resource Curse; The Economics of Natural Resource and Black Gold in sub-Saharan Africa
Quarshie, Gregory ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Babin, Adrian (referee)
It is gradually becoming common knowledge that, natural resources have not been able to make positive impact on economic growth of countries. In that, countries rich in natural resources grow at a slower pace than the resource-poor countries. This occurrence is one of the reasons behind many defections and militant groups against state authority in many resource-rich countries, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa. Using panel data from 1980 to 2010 on 34 sub- Saharan African countries, this paper examines whether institutionalised authority, which is a proxy for state authority, can change the negative relationship between natural resources and economic growth. The key finding is that, institutionalised authority can alter the negative relationship that exists between natural resources and economic growth. JEL Classification C33, O43, Q28, Q33, Q43, Keywords Natural Resources, Economic growth, Institutionalised Authority, Dutch Disease, sub-Saharan Africa
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Dutch disease in Russia
Havelka, Robert ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
Dutch disease in Russia Robert Havelka Abstract Dutch Disease offers formal explanation to the so-called "Resource curse". Detection of Dutch Disease is divided into individual symptoms. We study the case of Russia, i.e. country which possesses significant reserves of natural resources. Long-term relationship between oil price and Russian real exchange rate was not established (1st symptom), but we find evidence of growth and fall of overall wage level in Russia as predicted by Dutch Disease (2nd symptom). We have been able to find statistically significant long-term relationship between Russian GDP, oil price and crude oil export volumes (3rd symptom). Oil price is found to have positive impact on the output of manufacturing sector, which implies Russian economy is to even larger extent vulnerable to oil price shocks. Last link is in direct contradiction with predictions of our model, but it is likely the result of Russian manufacturing sector not being entirely "non-oil", or that some manufacturing sub-sectors are not producing tradable goods. JEL Classication F30, P28, Q30 Keywords Dutch disease, Russia, exchange rate Author's e-mail robberthz.cz@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@gmail.com
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Development of the Bolivian economy in the context of government policy and foreign trade
Dudzich, Viktar ; Šíma, Ondřej (advisor) ; Gevorgyan, Kristine (referee)
This thesis analyzes the development of the Bolivian economy during the presidency of Evo Morales and especially the effects of state legislative measures on different sectors of the economy in Bolivia. The influence of historical, political and social factors on the economic development of Bolivia is examined in this thesis. There are descriptions of the industrial and financial sectors, foreign trade, state social policy, key risks and forecasts about the development of the Bolivian economy. Emphasis is also placed on the interconnections between politics, economy and social sphere.
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Curse or Blessing: natural resources and economic growth - comparison of the development of Botswana, Nigeria, Norway and Canada in early 21st century
Zubíková, Adéla ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Zeman, Karel (referee)
This thesis seeks to verify the concept of so-called resource curse at the beginning of the new millennium. The theoretical part defines the symptoms of the alleged curse, curse transmission channels and criticism of the concept. Compared to other studies dealing with the theme of the resource curse this work is not focused on just one transmission channel. The practical part verifies several hypotheses established by comparing research papers on impacts of natural resources. The validity of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, Dutch disease symptoms and a negative impact on political institutions (inclination toward authoritarianism, high level of corruption, high government spending, low efficiency of economic and political decision-making and low investment in education) is verified. For the analysis have been selected two African countries (Nigeria and Botswana) and two advanced countries (Canada and Norway). The last part of this thesis provides policy implications. The results confirm the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis for selected commodities in the long term and some of the symptoms of Dutch disease at the beginning of the new millennium. Hypotheses regarding the impact on the political institutions have not been confirmed, since the results varied across the countries. The high vulnerability of the countries to movements in commodity prices was found.
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